The Implications Wheel
  • Home
  • Scouting the Future
  • Software
  • Training
  • Consulting
  • Examples
    • Case Studies
    • Explore the Consequences
  • Articles
  • Contact
  • Case Studies

Flu Pandemic Preparedness

We conducted this exploration for the VHA.  It contains 13 explored "first-order" implications with a total of 339 specific implications.

Details of the Center

For this exploration, the following "facts" were assumed:

Flu virus:
  • Incubation period for the flu is 1-4 days
  • People are infectious for 1 day before and 5 days after symptoms begin
  • Strain has a genetic makeup that makes it dangerous for all humans, including the young and healthy
  • Fatality rate approximately 50%
Spread and treatment needs:
  • The general public has little understanding of the H5N1 virus
  • As few as 10 infected individuals arriving at LAX could result in an infection rate of 10% of the U.S. population within 90 days.
  • A typical community outbreak would last 6-8 weeks
  • Attack rate estimated at 25-30% of the U.S. population (90 million people)
  • Half of those infected will need outpatient care (45 million)
  • Assuming the pandemic is similar to the 1918 pandemic:
    • .9 million would require hospitalization
    • 1.5 million would require ICU care
    • High need for ventilators (and respiratory therapists) due to respiratory hemorrhage caused by immune response
Workforce and business:
  • In any community, 10% or more of adults would be unable to work during peak. Likely, 25-30% of workforce would not report to work.
  • Most businesses utilize "just in time" inventory practices
  • Emergency planning for pandemic has been limited to government, public health, and health care organizations
Treatment and prophylaxis:
  • Antiviral shows mixed results for prophylaxis and treatment
  • National Strategic Stockpile has amassed antiviral doses for 25% of the U.S. population
  • No vaccine will be available for 6 months after pandemic initiates. Vaccines will be effective within a few days of administration
Proudly powered by Weebly