Flu Pandemic Preparedness
We conducted this exploration for the VHA. It contains 13 explored "first-order" implications with a total of 339 specific implications.
Details of the Center
For this exploration, the following "facts" were assumed:
- Incubation period for the flu is 1-4 days
- People are infectious for 1 day before and 5 days after symptoms begin
- Strain has a genetic makeup that makes it dangerous for all humans, including the young and healthy
- Fatality rate approximately 50%
- The general public has little understanding of the H5N1 virus
- As few as 10 infected individuals arriving at LAX could result in an infection rate of 10% of the U.S. population within 90 days.
- A typical community outbreak would last 6-8 weeks
- Attack rate estimated at 25-30% of the U.S. population (90 million people)
- Half of those infected will need outpatient care (45 million)
- Assuming the pandemic is similar to the 1918 pandemic:
- .9 million would require hospitalization
- 1.5 million would require ICU care
- High need for ventilators (and respiratory therapists) due to respiratory hemorrhage caused by immune response
- In any community, 10% or more of adults would be unable to work during peak. Likely, 25-30% of workforce would not report to work.
- Most businesses utilize "just in time" inventory practices
- Emergency planning for pandemic has been limited to government, public health, and health care organizations
- Antiviral shows mixed results for prophylaxis and treatment
- National Strategic Stockpile has amassed antiviral doses for 25% of the U.S. population
- No vaccine will be available for 6 months after pandemic initiates. Vaccines will be effective within a few days of administration